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When I was in kindergarten, I was involved in a melee of sorts with a couple of classmates. They had, in my opinion, spit in the eye of my belief system and portrayed my closest family members as liars and fabricators. These transgressions would not stand and I took my revenge upon the offending parties. I suspect it was limited to screaming and perhaps a good bout of hair-pulling, but whatever the actual damage it landed me in hot water with the authorities at school as well as my home.

That evening I spilled my story to my parents and assured them that I had acted with noble intent in defended the honor of our family. Several awkward moments later, these same parents were forced to admit that there might be something to what my classmates had said. In what was probably the first significant emotional let-down I have ever experienced my loving parents cracked and told me the thing that I couldn't bear: there is no such thing as Santa Claus; they'd been pretending.

The fact that I still remember this story in such vivid detail bears witness to the fact that it's not easy to have your belief system pulled out from under you - particularly when a key component of that system brings you gifts every year. It's also troubling to be forced to recall the now-all-too-unbelievable phone calls that Santa placed to me whenever my father was on a road trip.

In the present day, I am finally at peace with my Santa issues but I remain convinced that the general public has yet to work out theirs when it comes to investing. As a first step in the intervention process let's look at a few statistics of our post-downturn world:

Per Forbes, the total number of billionaires in the world shrunk from 1,125 to 798 in 2008 (a 30% decline).

Warren Buffett, our country's most esteemed investor, lost $25 billion dollars of his net worth in 2008.

Kirk Kerkorian, a real estate mogul who can't seem to stay away from the car industry, had his private equity firm buy 20 million shares of Ford in 2008 - only to turn around and sell a third of it shortly thereafter for a 65% loss. There's also the $13 billion decline in the value of his holdings in MGM but who's counting...

Jim Cramer, former fund manager turned TV personality, encouraged all those watching the Today Show on October 6, 2008 to remove any money from the stock market that they might need within the next five years. Whether you believe that his intent was to offer reasonable advice or to instead fan an already raging fire in pursuit of fame is a debate for another day. What isn't debatable is the path that the markets have taken since his comments.

For reference, this is a Weekly chart of SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY). It is compared against the index NASDAQ for the period of Oct 6th through September 29, 2009. It should be obvious but to confirm past performance is in no way indicative of future performance...

You probably heard quite a bit about everyone's former friend Bernie Madoff as well but Mr. Madoff is small potatoes compared to the rampant bloodshed described above. Think about these stats in this context: if the richest, most well connected people in the world can't find a way to sidestep the most significant melt down since the Great Depression then what does the average investor have to cling to? Is there really a firm/person out there that has managed to bring all of the upside with none of the downside and could they really be located behind the small ficus tree in your neighborhood bank?

Unfortunately, while I think more than a few people have re-examined the math on just how many presents a sled pulled by flying reindeer can actually hold, I think that most are still looking for their own personal Santa to ride in and save the day. We still have dozens of financial magazines, TV and radio finance shows and of course, the cobbled together remains of what were once some of the largest financial institutions (the logo or the catch line might have changed but they'd still really like to tell you about their expertise).

The core message of what of these firms in their various formats have to say is: we know something you don't know - and you should pay us for it.

While many of these firms employ individuals that have forgotten more than I will ever know, I would respectfully submit that when it comes to predicting the future no one really knows anything (if they did would they have new stationary this year?). There is no cabal of a half dozen individuals that manipulate the markets and even if there were I doubt they'd sell hot stock tips via their website (first, they wouldn't need the money and, second why on earth would they let anyone in on their game?).

Spread your bets. Don't look for the quick buck and try to avoid the temptation of believing everything you see on TV. After all, our military isn't really sharing their real-time tracking of Santa's sled with your local news station every Christmas Eve. At least that's what my parents told me....eventually.

Marshall J. Cobb, CRSP, is president and founder of Cobb Retirement Solutions, LLC., an independent, fee-only firm offering qualified plan analysis and oversight exclusively to corporations and organizations. Cobb's first-hand knowledge as a veteran representative of retirement plan vendors beginning in 1990 gives him a unique perspective as he advises his clients. Cobb runs his office -- based in Houston, Texas -- with employees and clients across the country.

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